tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Orlando → Louisville via Charlotte: arrives on time 33%

  1. 17:35 MCO → 19:34 CLT
    AA 2082 · American · 1h 59m · 49% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 29m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:03 CLT → 22:39 SDF
    AA 5161 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 36m · 54% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 44 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 29m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (54%).
Total trip5h 04mMCO 17:35 to SDF 22:39, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.