Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Orlando → San Francisco via Chicago: arrives on time 21%
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16:41 MCO → 18:59 ORDAA 2089 · American · 3h 18m · 23% on time, 2.8% cancelled
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2h 01m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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21:00 ORD → 23:58 SFOAA 3054 · American · 4h 42m · 32% on time, 4.2% cancelled
Total trip 10h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Orlando). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 76 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 01m layover.
Arrives on time21%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (32%).
Total trip10h 01mMCO 16:41 to SFO 23:58, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.