tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Orlando → Rochester via Chicago: arrives on time 49%

  1. 16:41 MCO → 18:59 ORD
    AA 2089 · American · 3h 18m · 23% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 2h 04m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:03 ORD → 23:56 ROC
    AA 4219 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 53m · 75% on time, 5.2% cancelled

Total trip 7h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 79 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 04m layover.
Arrives on time49%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (5.2% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip7h 15mMCO 16:41 to ROC 23:56, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.