tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Orlando → Phoenix via Miami: arrives on time 26%

  1. 15:39 MCO → 16:50 MIA
    AA 2092 · American · 1h 11m · 52% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:40 MIA → 19:28 PHX
    AA 2982 · American · 4h 48m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Orlando). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection41%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 59% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time26%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (41%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip6h 49mMCO 15:39 to PHX 19:28, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.