tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Orlando → Austin via Phoenix: arrives on time 27%

  1. 17:20 MCO → 18:55 PHX
    AA 2105 · American · 4h 35m · 52% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:44 PHX → 23:57 AUS
    AA 691 · American · 2h 13m · 71% on time, 1.6% cancelled

Total trip 7h 37m, scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Orlando). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection39%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 61% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (39%) × second flight not cancelled (1.6% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip7h 37mMCO 17:20 to AUS 23:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.