tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → New York via Las Vegas: arrives on time 58%

  1. 20:36 PHX → 21:43 LAS
    AA 2106 · American · 1h 07m · 68% on time, 0.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:46 LAS → 07:00 JFK +1 day
    AA 556 · American · 5h 14m · 84% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 7h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time58%First flight not cancelled (0.7% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip7h 24mPHX 20:36 to JFK 07:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.