tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dallas-Fort Worth → Fayetteville/Springdale/ via Phoenix: arrives on time 40%

  1. 14:30 DFW → 14:57 PHX
    AA 2108 · American · 2h 27m · 60% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:49 PHX → 20:30 XNA
    AA 4086 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 41m · 82% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 6h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip6h 00mDFW 14:30 to XNA 20:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.