tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Orlando → Providence via Philadelphia: arrives on time 45%

  1. 17:37 MCO → 20:22 PHL
    AA 2109 · American · 2h 45m · 46% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 33m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:55 PHL → 23:13 PVD
    AA 1664 · American · 1h 18m · 82% on time, 8.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 36m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 44 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 48 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 33m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (8.3% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip5h 36mMCO 17:37 to PVD 23:13, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.