tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Orlando → Manchester via Philadelphia: arrives on time 51%

  1. 17:37 MCO → 20:22 PHL
    AA 2109 · American · 2h 45m · 46% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 38m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:00 PHL → 23:38 MHT
    AA 5966 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 38m · 85% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 53 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 38m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip6h 01mMCO 17:37 to MHT 23:38, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.