tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Memphis via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 20%

  1. 15:15 PHX → 19:53 DFW
    AA 2113 · American · 2h 38m · 54% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:48 DFW → 22:21 MEM
    AA 3262 · American · 1h 33m · 44% on time, 5.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 06m, scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (44%).
Total trip5h 06mPHX 15:15 to MEM 22:21, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.