tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Des Moines via Philadelphia: arrives on time 50%

  1. 06:36 ORD → 09:46 PHL
    AA 2115 · American · 2h 11m · 76% on time, 5.6% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:35 PHL → 12:34 DSM
    AA 5165 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 59m · 85% on time, 4.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (5.6% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (4.3% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip5h 58mORD 06:36 to DSM 12:34, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.