tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Minneapolis via Philadelphia: arrives on time 58%

  1. 06:36 ORD → 09:46 PHL
    AA 2115 · American · 2h 11m · 76% on time, 5.6% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:40 PHL → 12:38 MSP
    AA 5658 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 58m · 88% on time, 2.6% cancelled

Total trip 6h 02m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time58%First flight not cancelled (5.6% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (2.6% are) and within 15 minutes (88%).
Total trip6h 02mORD 06:36 to MSP 12:38, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.