tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Richmond via Philadelphia: arrives on time 80%

  1. 06:36 ORD → 09:46 PHL
    AA 2115 · American · 2h 11m · 76% on time, 5.6% cancelled
  2. 3h 26m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:12 PHL → 14:35 RIC
    AA 5843 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 23m · 89% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 161 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 26m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (5.6% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (89%).
Total trip6h 59mORD 06:36 to RIC 14:35, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.