tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Wilmington via Philadelphia: arrives on time 55%

  1. 06:36 ORD → 09:46 PHL
    AA 2115 · American · 2h 11m · 76% on time, 5.6% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:40 PHL → 12:28 ILM
    AA 5978 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 48m · 82% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (Wilmington is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (5.6% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip4h 52mORD 06:36 to ILM 12:28, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.