tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Orlando → Sacramento via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 23%

  1. 19:33 MCO → 21:31 DFW
    AA 2117 · American · 2h 58m · 60% on time, 6.6% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:30 DFW → 23:59 SMF
    AA 509 · American · 3h 29m · 44% on time, 6.1% cancelled

Total trip 7h 26m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Orlando). Times are local. Both flew on 35 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (6.6% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (6.1% are) and within 15 minutes (44%).
Total trip7h 26mMCO 19:33 to SMF 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.