tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Santa Ana via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 43%

  1. 15:07 MSP → 17:47 DFW
    AA 2122 · American · 2h 40m · 58% on time, 8.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 28m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:15 DFW → 20:22 SNA
    AA 806 · American · 3h 07m · 68% on time, 5.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 22 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 43 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 28m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (8.3% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (5.8% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip7h 15mMSP 15:07 to SNA 20:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.