tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Norfolk via Philadelphia: arrives on time 64%

  1. 06:45 MIA → 09:38 PHL
    AA 2129 · American · 2h 53m · 92% on time, 1.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:38 PHL → 12:00 ORF
    AA 6121 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 22m · 72% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection92%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 8% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time64%First flight not cancelled (1.0% are) × connection made (92%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip5h 15mMIA 06:45 to ORF 12:00, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.