tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Missoula → Chicago via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 36%

  1. 14:15 MSO → 18:46 DFW
    AA 2144 · American · 3h 30m · 62% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:45 DFW → 22:32 ORD
    AA 3531 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 47m · 64% on time, 6.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 17m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Missoula). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (6.5% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip7h 17mMSO 14:15 to ORD 22:32, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.