tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Norfolk via Charlotte: arrives on time 42%

  1. 17:47 MSP → 21:29 CLT
    AA 2151 · American · 2h 42m · 62% on time, 3.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:29 CLT → 23:43 ORF
    AA 2674 · American · 1h 16m · 70% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 4h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (3.1% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip4h 58mMSP 17:47 to ORF 23:43, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.