tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Chicago via Charlotte: arrives on time 41%

  1. 17:47 MSP → 21:29 CLT
    AA 2151 · American · 2h 42m · 62% on time, 3.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:39 CLT → 00:01 ORD +1 day
    AA 3014 · American · 2h 22m · 65% on time, 8.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (3.1% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (8.3% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip6h 14mMSP 17:47 to ORD 00:01, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.