tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Norfolk via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 29%

  1. 10:34 MSP → 13:05 DFW
    AA 2152 · American · 2h 31m · 83% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:58 DFW → 18:00 ORF
    AA 2265 · American · 3h 02m · 42% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 26m, scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (42%).
Total trip6h 26mMSP 10:34 to ORF 18:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.