tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Dulles via Charlotte: arrives on time 37%

  1. 13:39 MSP → 17:23 CLT
    AA 2153 · American · 2h 44m · 84% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:10 CLT → 19:34 IAD
    AA 1450 · American · 1h 30m · 53% on time, 5.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (53%).
Total trip5h 01mMSP 13:39 to IAD 19:34, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.