tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New Orleans → Tampa via Charlotte: arrives on time 30%

  1. 13:50 MSY → 16:58 CLT
    AA 2170 · American · 2h 08m · 53% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:00 CLT → 19:51 TPA
    AA 1032 · American · 1h 51m · 56% on time, 1.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (1.3% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip5h 01mMSY 13:50 to TPA 19:51, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.