tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New Orleans → Tampa via Charlotte: arrives on time 41%

  1. 16:17 MSY → 19:26 CLT
    AA 2174 · American · 2h 09m · 68% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:16 CLT → 21:59 TPA
    AA 2022 · American · 1h 43m · 68% on time, 2.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Times are local. Both flew on 44 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (2.3% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip4h 42mMSY 16:17 to TPA 21:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.