tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Manchester via Charlotte: arrives on time 44%

  1. 17:50 DCA → 19:37 CLT
    AA 2182 · American · 1h 47m · 71% on time, 2.5% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:33 CLT → 22:51 MHT
    AA 5033 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 18m · 68% on time, 3.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (2.5% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (3.0% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip5h 01mDCA 17:50 to MHT 22:51, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.