tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Dayton via Charlotte: arrives on time 40%

  1. 17:50 DCA → 19:37 CLT
    AA 2182 · American · 1h 47m · 71% on time, 2.5% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:29 CLT → 22:09 DAY
    AA 5174 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 40m · 63% on time, 2.1% cancelled

Total trip 4h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (2.5% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (2.1% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip4h 19mDCA 17:50 to DAY 22:09, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.