tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New Orleans → San Francisco via Phoenix: arrives on time 24%

  1. 18:14 MSY → 19:35 PHX
    AA 2191 · American · 3h 15m · 67% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:23 PHX → 22:23 SFO
    AA 686 · American · 2h 00m · 46% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind New Orleans). Times are local. Both flew on 46 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection51%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 49% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (51%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (46%).
Total trip6h 09mMSY 18:14 to SFO 22:23, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.