tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Miami via New Orleans: arrives on time 48%

  1. 12:30 PHX → 17:34 MSY
    AA 2191 · American · 3h 04m · 80% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 23m layover in New Orleans (MSY) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:57 MSY → 21:59 MIA
    AA 2201 · American · 2h 03m · 52% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 42 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 38 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 23m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (52%).
Total trip6h 30mPHX 12:30 to MIA 21:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.