tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Washington via New Orleans: arrives on time 16%

  1. 14:14 ORD → 16:37 MSY
    AA 2198 · American · 2h 27m · 57% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in New Orleans (MSY) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:24 MSY → 21:00 DCA
    AA 5670 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 47m · 49% on time, 16.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection40%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 60% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time16%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (40%) × second flight not cancelled (16.9% are) and within 15 minutes (49%).
Total trip5h 57mORD 14:14 to DCA 21:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.