tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New Orleans → Dulles via Charlotte: arrives on time 21%

  1. 18:26 MSY → 21:33 CLT
    AA 2203 · American · 2h 07m · 44% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 12m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:45 CLT → 00:10 IAD +1 day
    AA 1242 · American · 1h 25m · 41% on time, 3.6% cancelled

Total trip 4h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Times are local. Both flew on 21 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 27 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 12m layover.
Arrives on time21%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (3.6% are) and within 15 minutes (41%).
Total trip4h 44mMSY 18:26 to IAD 00:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.