tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Washington via Miami: arrives on time 60%

  1. 22:00 PHX → 05:22 MIA
    AA 2205 · American · 4h 22m · 68% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 06:19 MIA → 09:00 DCA +1 day
    AA 491 · American · 2h 41m · 93% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (93%).
Total trip8h 00mPHX 22:00 to DCA 09:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.