tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dallas-Fort Worth → Sarasota/Bradenton via Miami: arrives on time 34%

  1. 18:10 DFW → 22:05 MIA
    AA 2206 · American · 2h 55m · 56% on time, 4.4% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:54 MIA → 23:59 SRQ
    AA 4071 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 05m · 85% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection42%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 58% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (4.4% are) × connection made (42%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip4h 49mDFW 18:10 to SRQ 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.