tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Ontario → Dulles via Charlotte: arrives on time 80%

  1. 22:10 ONT → 05:48 CLT
    AA 2237 · American · 4h 38m · 85% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 32m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:20 CLT → 08:50 IAD +1 day
    AA 5219 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 29m · 89% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 7h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 47 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 32m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (89%).
Total trip7h 39mONT 22:10 to IAD 08:50, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.