tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Los Angeles via Chicago: arrives on time 27%

  1. 14:20 EWR → 16:15 ORD
    AA 2250 · American · 2h 55m · 57% on time, 8.3% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:10 ORD → 19:33 LAX
    AA 1437 · American · 4h 23m · 55% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 8h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (8.3% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip8h 13mEWR 14:20 to LAX 19:33, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.