tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Orlando via Chicago: arrives on time 22%

  1. 14:20 EWR → 16:15 ORD
    AA 2250 · American · 2h 55m · 57% on time, 8.3% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:12 ORD → 21:05 MCO
    AA 486 · American · 2h 53m · 46% on time, 4.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time22%First flight not cancelled (8.3% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (4.8% are) and within 15 minutes (46%).
Total trip6h 45mEWR 14:20 to MCO 21:05, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.