tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Santa Ana via Chicago: arrives on time 28%

  1. 14:20 EWR → 16:15 ORD
    AA 2250 · American · 2h 55m · 57% on time, 8.3% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:05 ORD → 19:37 SNA
    AA 519 · American · 4h 22m · 63% on time, 2.6% cancelled

Total trip 8h 07m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (8.3% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (2.6% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip8h 07mEWR 14:20 to SNA 19:37, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.