tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Nashville via Chicago: arrives on time 23%

  1. 14:20 EWR → 16:15 ORD
    AA 2250 · American · 2h 55m · 57% on time, 8.3% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:05 ORD → 18:54 BNA
    AA 4933 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 49m · 51% on time, 2.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (8.3% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (2.4% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip5h 34mEWR 14:20 to BNA 18:54, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.