tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Grand Rapids via Chicago: arrives on time 28%

  1. 14:20 EWR → 16:15 ORD
    AA 2250 · American · 2h 55m · 57% on time, 8.3% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:11 ORD → 19:24 GRR
    AA 4729 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 10m · 62% on time, 9.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (8.3% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (9.7% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip5h 01mEWR 14:20 to GRR 19:24, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.