tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Anchorage via Chicago: arrives on time 43%

  1. 10:15 PHX → 16:12 ORD
    AA 2252 · American · 3h 57m · 78% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:00 ORD → 20:51 ANC
    AA 1354 · American · 6h 52m · 63% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 11h 37m, scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip11h 37mPHX 10:15 to ANC 20:51, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.