tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Philadelphia via Chicago: arrives on time 40%

  1. 10:15 PHX → 16:12 ORD
    AA 2252 · American · 3h 57m · 78% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:07 ORD → 20:25 PHL
    AA 1848 · American · 2h 18m · 59% on time, 4.3% cancelled

Total trip 7h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (4.3% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip7h 10mPHX 10:15 to PHL 20:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.