tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Madison via Chicago: arrives on time 43%

  1. 10:15 PHX → 16:12 ORD
    AA 2252 · American · 3h 57m · 78% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:00 ORD → 18:12 MSN
    AA 3717 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 12m · 70% on time, 8.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (8.1% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip5h 57mPHX 10:15 to MSN 18:12, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.