tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Fayetteville/Springdale/ via Chicago: arrives on time 43%

  1. 10:15 PHX → 16:12 ORD
    AA 2252 · American · 3h 57m · 78% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:00 ORD → 19:01 XNA
    AA 3846 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 01m · 69% on time, 7.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (7.1% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip6h 46mPHX 10:15 to XNA 19:01, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.