tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Little Rock via Chicago: arrives on time 46%

  1. 10:15 PHX → 16:12 ORD
    AA 2252 · American · 3h 57m · 78% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:59 ORD → 19:01 LIT
    AA 4062 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 00m · 71% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (Little Rock is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip6h 44mPHX 10:15 to LIT 19:01, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.