tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → Santa Ana via Phoenix: arrives on time 51%

  1. 17:28 PDX → 20:10 PHX
    AA 2288 · American · 2h 42m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:07 PHX → 22:26 SNA
    AA 2637 · American · 1h 19m · 82% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip4h 58mPDX 17:28 to SNA 22:26, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.