tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → Medford via Phoenix: arrives on time 46%

  1. 17:28 PDX → 20:10 PHX
    AA 2288 · American · 2h 42m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:10 PHX → 23:38 MFR
    AA 4915 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 28m · 72% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 6h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip6h 10mPDX 17:28 to MFR 23:38, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.