tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Raleigh/Durham via New York: arrives on time 66%

  1. 06:06 AUS → 11:00 JFK
    AA 2292 · American · 3h 54m · 88% on time, 1.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 59m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:59 JFK → 14:57 RDU
    AA 4658 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 58m · 74% on time, 5.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 74 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 59m layover.
Arrives on time66%First flight not cancelled (1.5% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (5.0% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip7h 51mAUS 06:06 to RDU 14:57, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.