tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Raleigh/Durham via Philadelphia: arrives on time 40%

  1. 08:54 PHX → 16:42 PHL
    AA 2300 · American · 4h 48m · 86% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:30 PHL → 19:11 RDU
    AA 5590 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 41m · 62% on time, 8.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 17m, scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (8.8% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip7h 17mPHX 08:54 to RDU 19:11, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.