tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Louisville via Philadelphia: arrives on time 83%

  1. 08:54 PHX → 16:42 PHL
    AA 2300 · American · 4h 48m · 86% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 56m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:38 PHL → 23:03 SDF
    AA 4466 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 25m · 86% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 11h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 191 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 56m layover.
Arrives on time83%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip11h 09mPHX 08:54 to SDF 23:03, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.