tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Little Rock via New York: arrives on time 37%

  1. 14:23 BNA → 17:44 LGA
    AA 2302 · American · 2h 21m · 66% on time, 3.3% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:40 LGA → 21:13 LIT
    AA 4644 · American, flown by Republic · 3h 33m · 68% on time, 6.4% cancelled

Total trip 6h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (3.3% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (6.4% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip6h 50mBNA 14:23 to LIT 21:13, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.