tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Charlotte → Pensacola via Miami: arrives on time 28%

  1. 20:15 CLT → 22:21 MIA
    AA 2321 · American · 2h 06m · 51% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:08 MIA → 23:59 PNS
    AA 4109 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 51m · 83% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 4h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (Pensacola is 1 h behind Charlotte). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection35%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 65% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (35%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip4h 44mCLT 20:15 to PNS 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.